PTA outlook will remain weak

November 15th news: The upper part was supported by the cost of raw paraxylene (PX), and the lower was suppressed by the weak production and sales of polyester, and the continued sluggish textile demand. The price of the Japanese main contract PTA1305 fluctuated around 7,500 yuan per ton, and the short side was more severely suppressed.

Although a large amount of new PTA production capacity has been put into operation, due to the shrinking profit margins and the decline in the load of PTA devices, the demand for raw materials has dropped. The tight PX supply pattern has temporarily eased, the cost support role has weakened, and weak terminal textile demand will continue to weaken the PTA outlook. Shock.

Despite the weak performance of the crude oil market, Asian PX is strongly supported by expected demand. As 6 million tons / year of new PTA production capacity is about to be put into production in the fourth quarter, the supply of PX is tight and concerns are increasing. China ’s PX imports in September were 591,000 tons, up 26.57% month-on-month and 13.25% year-on-year.

The strength of raw materials has squeezed the profits of PTA producers, and the losses in the production process have increased from 200 to 300 yuan per ton to 400 to 600 yuan. The average operating rate of PTA has dropped to 78%, a year-on-year decrease of 18%. This leads to the weakening of the expected tight supply of raw materials, and the PX may be pulled back in the later period, which weakens the PTA cost support.

After the autumn and winter orders, polyester filament consumption is weak, weaving enterprises continue to buy and use, and the price of polyester filament drops. The average inventory at the polyester plant rose from October, rising from 15 days to 26 days. Lower polyester prices, high inventory and low production and sales have all contributed to the downturn in the textile industry. With the end of the textile industry peak season, downstream demand is difficult to improve.

In the market outlook, the fundamentals are negative, the PTA market is oversupplied, the raw material support is weakened, and the PTA futures price will continue to fluctuate within a narrow range of 7400-7600 yuan per ton.